Sarkhan:One Belt One Road

Title: *Financial Warfare: The One Belt, One Road Doctrine*

Introduction:

In the annals of history, World War III was not fought with guns and armies but with currencies and influence. The battleground was not a field of battle but the global financial system. It was a war of attrition, where superpowers flexed their economic muscles and smaller economies found themselves caught in the crossfire. At the heart of this financial conflict was the One Belt, One Road initiative, a geopolitical strategy that China had set in motion to expand its influence across the globe.

Laos: The First Domino to Fall:

The story begins in Laos, a small Southeast Asian nation with big dreams. The Laotian government, eager to boost its economy and infrastructure, allowed China to construct a high-speed rail line through its territory as part of the One Belt, One Road plan. It seemed like an opportunity for growth and development, but it soon turned into a financial quagmire.

As Laos embarked on this ambitious railway project, the world was still grappling with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The global economy was fragile, and Laos was no exception. Then came the energy crisis, triggered by the surge in crude oil prices due to U.S. trade sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

The Laotian economy, already weakened, took another hit. The value of the Laotian Kip plummeted, reaching a staggering 19,745.00 per U.S. dollar by September 12, 2023. Inflation soared, and the fragility of fiat money's "full faith and credit" became painfully evident.

The Chinese Debt Trap:

As if caught in quicksand, Laos found itself sinking deeper into debt. The high-speed rail project, denominated in Chinese Yuan (CNY), meant that Laos had to repay substantial debts to China. However, the railway, touted as a symbol of progress, was scarcely used by Laotians, as only a privileged few could afford its services.

Desperate to navigate these treacherous financial waters, the Laotian government enacted a new banking policy. This policy, however well-intentioned, had unintended consequences. Thai commercial banks, unable to comply with the new regulations, closed their doors in Laos, severing a crucial financial lifeline.

It was a moment of reckoning for Laos. They were, quite literally, digging their own grave, and China seemed all too willing to provide the shovel.

From Butterflies to Hurricanes:

The global stage was set for a financial war of attrition. The United States, in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine, had imposed sanctions on Russian oil imports. Europe, too, was entangled in this economic web. Russia found itself cutoff from the SWIFT global payment system, and gas pipelines came to a grinding halt.

As the superpowers clashed, smaller economies like Laos bore the brunt. The petrodollar, once the linchpin of global trade, was now a focal point of contention. With every move in this financial chess game, the world economy experienced ripples, and smaller nations found themselves caught in the crossfire.

Conclusion:

The One Belt, One Road doctrine had set in motion a financial war that reshaped the world order. In this new era, countries no longer waged wars with bullets and bombs but with currencies and economic influence. Laos, as the first domino to fall, serves as a stark reminder that in the modern world, the battleground extends far beyond traditional battlefields, into the complex realm of global finance. The lessons learned from Laos' ordeal were a harbinger of the butterfly effect, where seemingly minor decisions and actions could lead to financial hurricanes on a global scale.